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Inflation or Deflation 2020?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WFiJw6QoTL4&t=3s What is Inflation? Look at the price of anything (bread) over any length of time and it goes up. Bread has quadrupled since the 80s. While it tends to go up, in any year the price of bread can drop below 0.0 that's deflation.  Go to Office for National Statistics for Inflation Figures: They look at thousands of goods in a consumer's "consumption basket such as shelter". There are urban consumers, argri users etc.  Basket changes as consumer tastes change.  Drivers of Inflation: Four Types: Demand Pull Inflation, Cost Push Inflation, Wage Push Inflation.  Rapid Expansion of Money and Credit = Demand Pull Inflation. Usually done by central banks to counteract a crisis.  Concern is that it will increase the price for goods and services: more dollars chasing the same amount of goods and services.  During 2008 and now the FED's balance sheet is now 6 trillion dollars. It makes loans, not grants.  Many Hed...
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Do it Yourself Asset Allocation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XRtqBMNIEjc&t=29s the most important driver for investment returns is your asset allocation policy.  Take time to learn the craft.  Response of 100 per cent of returns. On the same day BT fell 21% the FTSE didn't.  Professionals Investors can't beat the Index, so buy it.  ETFs by Descending Volatility: - Property.  - Emerging Market Equity.  - Emerging Market Bond.  - Large Cap Equity.  - High Yield Bond.  - Inflation-linked Bonds.  - Investment Grade Corporate Bond.  - Government Bond.  Trade as it it was a single Stock.  Think Macro, not Micro.  Macro Factors: Have to take a look at GDP.  - Leading indicator is Purchasing Managers Index, that's a leading driver for GDP. When Earnings go up, the share prices go up.  PMI speaks to Managers each month. in Industry about: Production Levels, New Orders, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Employment Levels. They ask if Business...
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Bonds 2020 - Is It Crazy To Buy Them?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWrRVvPey1Q&t=259s Why Hold Bonds? - Government - capital preservation. Government Bonds tends to rally.  - Diversity - they're a good hedge for equity, and are always liquid.  You don't get them to get rich! They preserve wealth, not create it.  Risk and Return.  [bit here you don't understand about risk and reward].  Bonds aren't always less volatile than 07'25. The Volatile 20+ Treasure Bond is comparible with the Life Strategy 100.  - Capital Preservation.  During the 2008 Crash: 1-3 months Govt Bonds did almost nothing, just acted like cash.  Longer Duration Bonds went up as equity fell. So they're an effective hedge.  What if Markets aren't crashing? You may still want to diversify your equity. Find asset which zig when equitys zag.   - Are Bonds Expensive.  One of the reasons people give for not buying bonds at the moment (May 2020), is that they're expensive.  MORE HERE.  Kr...
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Global Credit Crisis 2020 April 4, 2020.

Global Credit Crisis 2020 April 4, 2020.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W21RzZO3HYk Entering a deep and synchronised depression  Companies that have a lot of leverage, increased probability of default - global credit crisis. What is credit risk? Whenever an entity lends money, you’ll expect the money to be repaid in full at a date in the future, with interest paid along the way. But the higher the risk, the higher the interest payments.  If company has a higher credit risk, you’ll be compensate for the increased chance of default, where the company becomes bankrupt - the greater the risk, the greater the return, but the return or yield is greater.  Why does  a company go bust? Assets and Liabilities Liabilities - how do you pay for your assets? Equity - paid by shareholders Debt - Bond Issues. When the price of a company falls that has drop has to be mopped up by the equity, making it decrease, as the debt can’t shrink. Likewise when assets shrink, the equity ...
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What To Buy In A Stock Market Crash

What To Buy In A Stock Market Crash https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fZ6Djt5Yig You need to understand, leverage and liquidity and how long you think the recession is going to last for.  Beware of Recency Bias.  If you think we’re going to enter a deep recession: The assets that affect us most during a deep recession, are things like high leverage,  So you want low leverage and liquid, large cap equity and DM Govt Bonds, cash and gold.  If you think the worst is over you want to buy the sectors which have been hit the hardest, as these will have the largest gains.  From 2008 - Financial had the larges gains, Energy, Healthcare, Consumer Stapes, Utilities, Telecoms.  In this crash, energy has suffered most, with Financial and Materials behind. Cautious about energy stables until there’s some indication the price of oil has bounced back.  IShares 20+ year treasurey bond. Has risen 14.1 per cent.  Vanguard Small-cap ETF and REIT has suffered badly....
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